By GC89
#7591
After a bright start to the season, it really does now feel like we are in the quagmire of a relegation battle. I have been through each of the remaining fixtures and predicted results and ultimately think it is a three horse race between ourselves, Wasps and Leicester. Saracens will make up the points difference with ease and Worcester and Quins will pick up too many home wins.

This is based entirely on predicted results, but I see us falling a couple of points short of survival if everything goes according to script (of course, this does not take into account injuries or anything else unexpected). I will keep this updated as the season goes on.

Irish (12 points)

Exeter (H) - 0 points
Northampton (A) - 0 points
Harlequins (A) - 1 point (as this fixture comes during the Six Nations it is one we should be targeting as a surprise away win, but for now have gone with home advantage)
Gloucester (H) - 1 point
Wasps (H) - 4 points
Sale (A) - 0 points
Bath (A) - 0 points
Northampton (H) - 1 point
Leicester (A) - 1 point (with returning internationals post Six Nations, I struggle to see us getting anything more from this game)
Saracens (H) - 0 points
Gloucester (A) - 0 points
Harlequins (H)- 4 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Exeter (A) - 0 points
Bristol (H) - 1 point

Estimated total: 29

Leicester (6 points)

Bristol (H) - 4 points (Bristol have hit a bad run of form at the wrong time and this is simply a must win match for Tigers)
Bath (A) - 1 point
Wasps (H) - 4 points
Sale (A) - 0 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Saracens (A) - 0 points
Exeter (A) - 0 points
Bath (H) - 4 points
Irish (H) - 5 points (expect with Ford pulling the strings post Six Nations, they will put 4 tries past us, even if we stick within 7)
Gloucester (A) - 0 points
Sale (H) - 4 points
Wasps (A) - 1 point
Northampton (H) - 1 point
Bristol (A) - 1 point
Quins (H) - 5 points

Estimated total: 40

Wasps (11 points)

Northampton (H) - 1 point
Worcester (A) - 1 point
Leicester (A) - 1 point
Saracens (H) - 0 points
Irish (A) - 1 point
Gloucester (H) - 1 point
Northampton (A) - 0 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Sale (H) - 1 point
Bath (A) - 0 points
Saracens (A) - 0 points
Leicester (H) - 4 points
Bristol (H) - 4 points
Quins (A) - 1 point
Exeter (H) - 1 point

Estimated total: 31 points
By Hsmith18
#7607
That six nations period will be crucial. 3 winnable games in there but a lot will depend on how many guys we have back from injury. Get around 10 points there and I think we will be okay
User avatar
By TeflonTed
#7628
Interesting GC89, and good to hear you’re going to update, I’ll be following with interest.

From a Wuss perspective, I see you’ve put Tigers down to beat us at Welford Rd.

I’m sure you’ve done your homework, and have decided we won’t beat them at Welford Rd for a 3rd time in succession!
By Ms. Citlalli Kiehn DDS
#7630
I’m ever hopeful Ted but probabilities may be being extended a bit far for three on the trot. That said we must be “in their heads” a bit.
By GC89
#7639
To be honest Ted, it’s not that scientific. Worcester will obviously have a great chance to do the treble at Welford Road, but I expect the Bookies will still have Tigers as favourites. We would obviously be very grateful if you could do us a favour on that front!
TeflonTed liked this
By GC89
#7830
So not too much has changed. All three sides put on decent performances. To get 4 tries against Exeter is no mean feat, but the satisfaction at that has been slightly tempered by Leicester and Wasps exceeding expectations (albeit slightly). I have a spreadsheet which includes Wuss, Quins and Sarries and had originally excluded them as thought they were all safe, but could see Wuss and Quins being pulled in on the basis of that round. Will include them depending on how things go in the next set of fixtures.

Irish (13 points)

Northampton (A) - 0 points
Harlequins (A) - 1 point (as this fixture comes during the Six Nations it is one we should be targeting as a surprise away win, but for now have gone with home advantage)
Gloucester (H) - 1 point
Wasps (H) - 4 points
Sale (A) - 0 points
Bath (A) - 0 points
Northampton (H) - 1 point
Leicester (A) - 0 points (with returning internationals post Six Nations, I struggle to see us getting anything more from this game, especially given a decent Tigers win over Bristol)
Saracens (H) - 0 points
Gloucester (A) - 0 points
Harlequins (H)- 4 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Exeter (A) - 0 points
Bristol (H) - 1 point

Estimated total: 29

Leicester (11 points)

Bath (A) - 1 point
Wasps (H) - 4 points
Sale (A) - 0 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Saracens (A) - 0 points
Exeter (A) - 0 points
Bath (H) - 4 points
Irish (H) - 5 points (expect with Ford pulling the strings post Six Nations, they will put 4 tries past us)
Gloucester (A) - 1 point
Sale (H) - 4 points
Wasps (A) - 1 point
Northampton (H) - 4 points
Bristol (A) - 1 point
Quins (H) - 5 points

Estimated total: 45 (well safe)

Wasps (13 points)

Worcester (A) - 1 point
Leicester (A) - 1 point
Saracens (H) - 0 points
Irish (A) - 1 point
Gloucester (H) - 1 point
Northampton (A) - 0 points
Worcester (H) - 4 points
Sale (H) - 1 point
Bath (A) - 1 point
Saracens (A) - 0 points
Leicester (H) - 4 points
Bristol (H) - 4 points
Quins (A) - 1 point
Exeter (H) - 1 point

Estimated total: 33 points
User avatar
By Narbia
#8900
Take one game at a time.

Maybe time to get Rory Brand back from London Scottish for the Quins game. Let the other two starting 9s have a game off. I think we might need some quick ball from the rucks and some blitzing down the wide channels to get a win at the Stoop.

Sure Quins mullered a shell-shocked depleted Sarries. I don't think we're in the same mental state. Get Brand in IMVHO.
User avatar
By Stevie J
#8914
Narbia wrote:
Tue Jan 28, 2020 1:23 pm
Take one game at a time.

Maybe time to get Rory Brand back from London Scottish for the Quins game. Let the other two starting 9s have a game off. I think we might need some quick ball from the rucks and some blitzing down the wide channels to get a win at the Stoop.

Sure Quins mullered a shell-shocked depleted Sarries. I don't think we're in the same mental state. Get Brand in IMVHO.
I'm very much on the bandwagon to give Brand some bench time and to bring him on for impact - though if Kidney continues to go with Phipps and Meehan then at least let him start the A-League when it restarts.
By Margin_Walker
#8923
I also wonder why Brand hasn't had more first team rugby before now. Would be great to get a good look at him at some point and I'd hope he would have had a lot of Challenge Cup gametime, but that ship has sailed now.

That said, I don't think Meehan and Phipps are as bad as their performance on Sunday suggests and I don't personally see it as the biggest area of weakness in the squad.

Brand is very dangerous with ball in hand, but from what little I've seen him in full games he's not got the best pass (as 9s go). Small sample size I know, but he also got caught napping at the base on more than one occasion the last time I saw him play (Scarlets off the bench I think). He really needs meaningful gametime somewhere though, as I'm not sure 15 minutes off the bench for Scottish each week is ideal. Hope he gets a proper shot at some point, as he's far more explosive and agile than our other options there and would really threaten the fringe defence.
User avatar
By Stevie J
#9031
I agree with that - as I've said elsewhere he needs some gametime. I'm certainly not advocating him to be our starting 9 but I'm not sure starting Steele at 9 in the A-League helps us.

By hook or by crook I imagine we will have one less 9 next season.
Margin_Walker liked this
By Margin_Walker
#9037
Yep, Englefield will be a year older to provide cover from the academy. Wouldn't be surprised if Rory Morgan (has featured for Ire U18s) also gets a senior academy contract next year. Can't see the value in then having four senior 9s. Unless you have a concentration of injuries, someone is always likely to be starved of gametime.

Agree that Brand should have been given some experience in front of Steele.
Covid Repayments

I’m pretty sure I read from an interview s[…]

LC-D health scare

https://www.rugbypass.com/plus/luke-cowan-dickie-i[…]

Mr Critchard Keeps Us Informed

Good, solid prop. Never let us down, especially in[…]

That's a shame, Wonder where he'll go? I know hi[…]