[Stevie J]

Ahead of the Premiership kicking off in 2 weeks this place is very quiet. Lets therefore open things up and talk about the new season and what we can maybe expect from our boys in green.

This year will be fascinating for a few reasons, not withstanding another year without relegation and the return of Saracens, we are about to gain an insight into what a 13 team league looks like with two bye weeks. Irish will have theirs at the midpoint and very end of the season, meaning that if anything is at stake in week 26, they'll be watching on telly just like us fans.

Some Big Blocks to Shift
Teams often talk about blocks in the season and this one will feature quite a few for Irish. Whilst they might break theirs up differently, I see four big blocks:

• Block 1 - first 8 weeks of back to back Prem action.
• Block 2 - end of November into the first bye week, with Prem Rugby Cup and European action (if that ever gets sorted)
• Block 3 - Another backbreaker with 7 weeks of back to back Prem action.
• Block 4 - The weird end of season where if Irish don't play any knockout rugby, we'll have 5 Prem matches in two months.

That first block will be crucial. Lions players will be either on an enforced or recommended break and the Rugby Championship is in full flow until 3rd October before the Autumn internationals start. Its unlikely teams will have too much use of their internationals at times, and Irish play Worcs (A), Sale (H), Saints (A), Tigers (H), Glaws (H), Exeter (A), Bristol (H) and then Saracens (A). For me Irish need 4 wins from that.

After two Prem Rugby Cup weeks, Quins (A) and Newcastle (H) before Europe and a Boxing Day trip to Wasps (A) and then a short turnaround for Bath (H) on New Years day. Irish then have their first ever bye week before more European games.

Block 3 will be another affected by the Six nations but before that is Exeter (H) and Gloucester (A). Bristol (A), Sarries (H), Sale (A), Worcester (H) and Tigers (A) wither fall on internationals or rest weeks. The rest weeks likely mean not much or any advantage will be gained against Sarries or Worcester and Sale will have their full contingent of Springboks, by my count they have eleventy billion of them now.

The final block is the weird one. A mix of midweek Prem Rugby Cup, European knockouts, and 5 Prem games across two months. Grounds get firm, teams find their style or fling it around. And we won't finish on the last week of theseason unlike the other 12, because...

Bye Weeks will be a factor
With the bye weeks we now have the very NFL conundrum of playing teams who have more time to prepare and with this we can see who is going to be most affected . The following shows each team and how many times they will be playing a team coming off their bye and in theory having two weeks to prepare for them and not just one:

Leicester Tigers 4
Bath Rugby 2
Bristol Bears 2
Exeter Chiefs 2
London Irish 2
Newcastle Falcons 2
Harlequins 1
Northampton Saints 1
Saracens 1
Worcester Warriors 1
Gloucester Rugby 0
Sale Sharks 0
Wasps 0

Leicester seemed to have pulled the shortest straw here, going up against opponents with extra rest 4 times and 3 clubs will not have that against them in Glaws, Sale and Wasps. Irish face two opponents who will have extra rest and prep time: Bristol in Round 7 at the BCS and Quins in Round 22, also at the BCS. And as we have the bye week at the mid and end point of the season, we don't get that advantage over anyone.

Have other teams improved?
The drop in salary cap certainly seems to have affected some teams. Take a look at this (nearly) exhaustive lists of ins and outs. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of ... _transfers

Bath gain Cipriani and are already talking a good game about being better in both attack and defence. There's very much not many coming in and Zach Mercer is a big loss.

Bristol have lost the Saracens loan duo and I'm not sure have replaced them. For me it was foolhardy of teams to take those loans on. Will be interesting to see what happens when Piutau and Hughes gets their usual injuries.

Exeter scored the second most points and had the stingiest defence. Oh and they get fans back in an enlarged Sandy Park. They seem to be about as stable as could be for their leading players.

Gloucester, where Ben Meehan has landed alongside Harry Elrington. More importantly Adam Hastings is a big improvement at 10 for them and as I alluded to elsewhere, they were one of the more 'unlucky' teams and should have won more games. I fancy they will creep up the table.

Quins took one of Worcester's best players, have an international to back-up Marcus Smith and sat there as Huw Jones fell into their lap. They got hot at the right time last year but actually, look arguably stronger on paper this year.

Tigers have one of the bigger turnovers and Lavanini aside its largely back-ups and depth pieces gone. They will have a strong back row this season, once two thirds of it returns from The Rugby Championship.

Newcastle were one of the teams that picked up more wins than their points scoring would ordinarily allow. Nathan Earle and Mike Brown arrive from Quins.

Northampton could have a steal in Juarno Augustus who was widely considered a tremendous youth prospect. I still don't have a good handle on them but they'll likely be safe midtable.

Sale have replaced three front rowers with three front rowers. Minimal movement sounds ideal for them in year 2 under Sanderson.

Sarries are Sarries. I would be surprised if they didn't just come straight in like nothing has changed and pile into the top 4.

Wasps biggest help might be from injured players returning. I don't rate Hougaard much but as a back-up he will likely help, Stooke is a good Prem level lock. I am glad however to see the back of Kieran Brookes.

Never mind all that, what about Irish?
Irish under Kidney and Kiss have been steadily improving when you look at league position, points and tries scored, though much less so with points and tries conceded. From the relegation season through two (COVID affected) Premiership seasons, the attack has become more potent going from 17.5 points to just over 23 points scored per game. The real improvement really has to come from the defence: points against has been better each year but it still averaged almost 28 points against per game in the Premiership. Step forward Brad Davis.

With most new players joining the team depth players, aside from maybe Van Der Merwe and Benhard Janse van Rensburg, either the attack has to improve into a Bristol / Quins we'll score more than you mindset...or the defence needs to improve enough that more wins could be picked up.

The biggest issue Irish has, for me, remains the game management. Will that be something that a quite talented team can learn this offseason? Above I said that first block we really need 4 wins. Last year we won only 6 games entirely in the league and yet how many did they lose in the final minute or fail to turn up? The top two inches will determine the level of improvement.

COVID will be a factor again
Last year almost every team was affected except for Exeter, Sales and Wasps. Likely COVID will be a factor again and Bath have already had a preseason match called off. Much like last season you could luck out and gain wins and additional rest for your players in what will be some marathon slogs.

What do I think?

• Top four shuffle means if Sarries are still as good as we think, someone from last year will drop out. My hot take is Bristol. Aside from being paper tigers most years they have not, in my opinion, replaced the Saracens loanees. They'll still be a force when at full strength but not sure they have enough to take the next step and make the Premiership Final.
• Teams that will improve? There was a few by my reckoning who should have won more games last season (and Irish were one). Gloucester is for me a team that will move up. Considering they limped without a recognisable first line 10 all season, to have Adam Hastings outside the international periods could be good for several wins. And Worcester can only improve. Minus COVID, they won just one game and well, we know who that was against. Heinz is a smart operator at 9.
• Teams that may fall? Tigers will have four opponents with extra bye week prep and will miss their new Springboks at the start of the season. I think they could slip albeit slightly. Hard to necessarily see them jump from 6th to much higher.
• London Irish prediction? You can talk yourself into a positive or negative viewpoint depending on how much you value last minute losses. I think 9th / 10th is about right, although there's always hope.

[Narbia]

One of the reasons it's pretty quiet here is the lack of a pre-season game in England. It's usually a pleasant jaunt to the paddock @ Hazelwood.

And as BT sport reverts to its normal format, some are going to find that a huge loss from what we've just had.

COVID will be a factor again

With 1 in 72 of the population of England current being CV19 infected, you're not wrong there.
That may well hit attendances at the BCS (and elsewhere).

[MattM]

A very thorough review Steve and spot on for me. I have us finishing 9th based on nothing more than gut feel.
Also agree that only two of our new signings look like being starters and even Janse van Rensburg is a bit of a question mark in that regard.
That said Ben White is a step up from our bench 9 at the tail end of last season and it does feel like most of our signings can at least do a job when called upon.

Development will be key for me. The back three are established, Donnell has matured well and Munga has shown his quality when given the opportunity. Which players push through this year to join them?

[GC89]

Great read Steve. The thing that stood out for me was the data about teams facing sides that had come off a rest week. I had thought about the impact of timing of rest weeks on the team having them, but not on the opposition that they subsequently face. Very interesting.

I think in most areas of the squad we are probably stronger than last year. Willemse for Matu'u at hooker feels like much of a muchness - probably worse arrows, but better discipline by the sounds of it. Prop we are definitely stronger with van der Merwe coming in. If he lives up to expectations then that is a really big signing. Even with Mahu going I think lock is stronger on the basis that it looks as if we are going into the season with all five options fit and available which is a huge boost. Back row is sadly much weaker with Blair departing. Prior to his departure I thought we had two reliable top Premiership options in him and Albert, but now it feels like a position where we are relying on one of several unlikely things falling into place - SOB staying fit all season, Donnell performing consistently week in week out (I think he has massive potential but still a few things to iron out in his game) or an unknown breaking through. I was really hoping we would bring someone in to replace Blair, but perhaps we have committed to a big contract in this position for the 2022/23 season when I expect SOB will have stepped down as well.

Onto the backs and White for Meehan feels like a fairly like for like swap. Meehan at his best was brilliant, but the frequency of those performances fell away in recent times. White is younger and has the potential to be a really solid option. Jennings coming in at fly half gives us a solid and dependable back-up to Paddy who can take the load off somewhat. In the centres BJVR could be a great signing and I have high hopes for him, but I suspect he will be seen primarily as a back-up 13 to Rona to begin with and will need to bide his time to challenge at 12 (even if that to me based on his skillset looks like a perfect fit for him). The back three is arguably stronger than last season purely on the basis that Rowe will hopefully be fit and available.

So our strongest 23 with everyone fit and available?

1. Goodrick-Clarke
2. Creevy
3. van der Merwe
4. Coleman
5. Simmons
6. Mafi
7. O'Brien
8. Tuisue

9. Phipps
10. Jackson
11. OHC
12. BJVR (hopefully)
13. Rona
14. Loader
15. Parton

Bench: Cornish, Dell, Chawatama, Donnell, Rogerson, White, Hepetema, Williams

In terms of where we will end up, I would take 9th. Saracens' arrival strengthens the league and with the one extra team, I think staying where we finished last time around could actually be seen as a minor improvement.

Finally, Matt posed the question as to who we may see break through this year. Joseph looks the most likely in the backs. Probably not as a league starter, as the competition at 13 is very strong, but I could see him doing a job on the wings if called upon and think he will start to make a claim in the European competition. The forwards are much harder to predict. Haffar looks just about ready now to challenge Dell and Gigena (who have underwhelmed), but we will have to see. I have a good feeling about Pearson who seems to be training a lot with the first team based on the videos and media that we have seen from the club.

[shimmieandshake]

Nice one, Stevie. Always enjoy your write-ups.

And GC89, think I'd have pretty much an identical side.

Lots will depend on injuries. If we're fortunate with the fitness of our starting back, we can beat sides up before unleashing the wide lads.

Interested to see the impact of 50/22 also, suspect it'll play in our favour, but let's wait and see.

With luck, 6th/7th is doable, but I think 9th/10th might be more likely.

[Lazyboy346]

Good write up, although Worcester can probably be a bit put out that they were the only team not covered in the assessment of signings (for my money, better but lacking their lions might mean it doesn't kick in for a while given turnover).

I'd be happy with 8th or higher. We blew too many points in the last minutes of games for me to be too happy with treading water (10th with the extra side) and sneaking into 9th is realistic but probably not really the progress we need in the third (and for some probably final) season of our big promotion signings.

Hoping BJVR and VDM make decent impacts as I think they could fix concerns with our scrum and with Jackson needing a capable second receiver in support who has a bit of size on them (with Parton as a decent third on the break but not always able to help out if we've got little tempo or go forward). Having our three big name locks fit would really help especially allowing Mafi to cover back row where we are a bit callow outside the senior three players.

A cup run in either or preferably both competitions would also be a welcome break. Wins with squads containing a fair chunk of the academy are very good for development and I can see Haffar, Green and Smart stepping up to Premiership (the first two probably a season early) if they play well as Joseph did last year and hopefully will do again.

Fingers crossed the prop cover options either stick around, we sign someone for the season with the money from Blair leaving or the academy props get decent game time as we lack options there given injuries and Gigena's call up.

[Stevie J]

Our European opponents and fixtures have now been revealed.

https://www.epcrugby.com/challenge-cup/ ... d-results/

Edinburgh, Saracens, Pau and Brive.

[Stevie J]

If anyone fancies a different type of preview, this one based on data might show some interesting things beyond the usual lazy trite barely researched nonsense (all the same journalist).

Has some interesting things to say about our style of play, age of squad and attack where we scored lots of BPs for tries scored but actually not a lot of tries.

https://dl.orangedox.com/Bajad8taPremiershipPreview

[Narbia]

That's a great find. Working my way through it....

[shimmieandshake]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/ ... the-season

I prefer my season previews to be brief and damning, per the above.

[Stevie J]

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/ ... the-season

I prefer my season previews to be brief and damning, per the above.

Now thats something else. Stephen Jones would be proud.

Here's some others:
The Mirror - https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/rugby-un ... n=sharebar

Daily Telegraph - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/rugby-union ... 22-season/

The Times - https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/prem ... -jk5c52bbs

[GC89]

That is a great read Steve. Some very interesting stuff in there. Didn't realise just how important Mafi was as a carrier - I am guessing because a lot of his metres were "uncontested" in that he didn't have to make much ground in contact as he often used his pick and go trick to get over the gainline unopposed. I suspect defences will be more alert to that this season.

The link also confirms something I had suspected for a while - our midfield defence is generally very solid. We don't let many teams break through us at will, but we are clearly still quite leaky once teams get close to the tryline, either through pick and goes or driving mauls.

The Guardian article seems a little harsh (especially when read straight after the link, which highlights some real positives). I would be very surprised if we were as low as 13th, although never say never.