- Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:59 pm
#52658
“Here we, here we, here we ******* go!”
So after being the first club to finish their season it’s been a long old break, since May 21st, when we sort of stumbled over the finish line with just enough momentum to secure 8th place. But, that’s the past and to paraphrase, I’m ready to be heartbroken all over again.
So here we go, a trip to Jersey where we got beat both seasons in the Championship to start our warm up for a season that features a return to the Champions Cup. Rather than dwell too much on Jersey which will likely be a bit scrappy with lots of changes, a bit on the new season.
Kidney-Kiss
In the past I've put on here about certainly how our progress has been under the coaching staff. Year on year our Points per game and Tries per game have all trended in the right direction. Our defence is somewhat still more porous.
I'd imagine our attack may regress to the mean somewhat, especially if we have to rotate our key players more with Champ Cup in mind. So here's hoping the team can defend and not compound mistakes so much.
Luck and Pythagoras
Wins over Expected is a simple measure whereby measuring points scored and points conceded in a pythagorean formula, you can see the 'expected' win rate. Using that against what teams actually did you can sometimes pick out over and under performers. Its a basic measure and not to be used alone, but there's not too much public data to really dive into these things.
Back in 2020/21 and the three biggest over performers were Bristol, Newcastle and Bath. So given how they crashed to earth the following season its not a bad barometer.
Based on such measures the biggest difference in Wins over Expected in 2021/22 were... Irish (should have 3.2 more wins) and Gloucester (2.6 wins). Given the number of draws we have thats not surprising really. Leicester were the biggest over performers at 2.7 wins more than expected.
What does that tell us? I could see Gloucester with a bit of luck kicking on but given we drew 5 games I'm not sure I see the same thing for us. Leicester may regress but I think its likely they still will finish very high up.
Player Turnover
Officially the best part of 22 players, including loanees, have left Irish in the close season. Strip away those and some Academy players going to university, we can see what we are really dealing with. Dell and Van Der Merwe never really hit their straps whilst here. Nott was a great clubman and very handy to have around the squad. The backrow has lost a lot of experience in Tuisue, O'Brien, Mafi. Cracknell was seemingly never staying but he'll do well at Tigers.
In the backs Phipps is the biggest miss with Hepetema and Cokanasiga not being major players in the last 12 months. For my mind thats where we might struggle a bit at the start, is some connectivity between the back row and scrum half as Fa'aso'o and Powell bed in.
Personally most excited by Fischetti who gives us a great 1-2 punch with WGC on the loosehead and Fa'aso'o at 8 who has been talked up a lot. While we have lost Nott, and I was a big fan, we've rejigged the second row from 4 senior players to it seems 6 with Ratuniyarawa, Caulfield and Scragg joining. Hopefully less pressure will follow on Coleman and Simmons.
Predications are a mugs game
I'll make one anyway: I think assuming Worcester are playing all their games we will win 10 games, better than last season but with more losses, less draws and likely less bonus points. Thats the pessimist in me talking. I could see a situation where we win more with some teams resting England players, injuries, and who knows if we actually get some luck and turn those FIVE blimmin' draws into wins.
We have some better spaced breaks this season - Four league games and two mid-week cup games before a buy and two week prep for our 'Enya' trip. However following the Autumn Internationals we have a bit of a gauntlet with 11 back-to back weeks of league and Champions Cup including a trip to South Africa and a tightened Christmas / New Year period.
Broadly I could see Gloucester nicely building and likely some sort of bounceback campaigns from Bath and Bristol (though I still don't rate them much).
So after being the first club to finish their season it’s been a long old break, since May 21st, when we sort of stumbled over the finish line with just enough momentum to secure 8th place. But, that’s the past and to paraphrase, I’m ready to be heartbroken all over again.
So here we go, a trip to Jersey where we got beat both seasons in the Championship to start our warm up for a season that features a return to the Champions Cup. Rather than dwell too much on Jersey which will likely be a bit scrappy with lots of changes, a bit on the new season.
Kidney-Kiss
In the past I've put on here about certainly how our progress has been under the coaching staff. Year on year our Points per game and Tries per game have all trended in the right direction. Our defence is somewhat still more porous.
- 21/22 - 93 tries scored and 88 conceded in 23 games
- 20/21 - 53 tries scored and 68 tries conceded in 19 games
- 19/20 - 50 tries scored and 88 tries conceded in 22 games
I'd imagine our attack may regress to the mean somewhat, especially if we have to rotate our key players more with Champ Cup in mind. So here's hoping the team can defend and not compound mistakes so much.
Luck and Pythagoras
Wins over Expected is a simple measure whereby measuring points scored and points conceded in a pythagorean formula, you can see the 'expected' win rate. Using that against what teams actually did you can sometimes pick out over and under performers. Its a basic measure and not to be used alone, but there's not too much public data to really dive into these things.
Back in 2020/21 and the three biggest over performers were Bristol, Newcastle and Bath. So given how they crashed to earth the following season its not a bad barometer.
Based on such measures the biggest difference in Wins over Expected in 2021/22 were... Irish (should have 3.2 more wins) and Gloucester (2.6 wins). Given the number of draws we have thats not surprising really. Leicester were the biggest over performers at 2.7 wins more than expected.
What does that tell us? I could see Gloucester with a bit of luck kicking on but given we drew 5 games I'm not sure I see the same thing for us. Leicester may regress but I think its likely they still will finish very high up.
Player Turnover
Officially the best part of 22 players, including loanees, have left Irish in the close season. Strip away those and some Academy players going to university, we can see what we are really dealing with. Dell and Van Der Merwe never really hit their straps whilst here. Nott was a great clubman and very handy to have around the squad. The backrow has lost a lot of experience in Tuisue, O'Brien, Mafi. Cracknell was seemingly never staying but he'll do well at Tigers.
In the backs Phipps is the biggest miss with Hepetema and Cokanasiga not being major players in the last 12 months. For my mind thats where we might struggle a bit at the start, is some connectivity between the back row and scrum half as Fa'aso'o and Powell bed in.
Personally most excited by Fischetti who gives us a great 1-2 punch with WGC on the loosehead and Fa'aso'o at 8 who has been talked up a lot. While we have lost Nott, and I was a big fan, we've rejigged the second row from 4 senior players to it seems 6 with Ratuniyarawa, Caulfield and Scragg joining. Hopefully less pressure will follow on Coleman and Simmons.
Predications are a mugs game
I'll make one anyway: I think assuming Worcester are playing all their games we will win 10 games, better than last season but with more losses, less draws and likely less bonus points. Thats the pessimist in me talking. I could see a situation where we win more with some teams resting England players, injuries, and who knows if we actually get some luck and turn those FIVE blimmin' draws into wins.
We have some better spaced breaks this season - Four league games and two mid-week cup games before a buy and two week prep for our 'Enya' trip. However following the Autumn Internationals we have a bit of a gauntlet with 11 back-to back weeks of league and Champions Cup including a trip to South Africa and a tightened Christmas / New Year period.
Broadly I could see Gloucester nicely building and likely some sort of bounceback campaigns from Bath and Bristol (though I still don't rate them much).
- By poyntonshark
- By RugbyMarvel