By H's D
#11606
https://www.channel4.com/programmes/cor ... e-yourself

...and draw your own conclusions.
The interview by Dr Tullekin with Dr Adam Kucharski associate professor of epidemiology at London School of Tropical Medicine (@ minute 31.52) I found particularly revealing.

What HMG (understandably) aren't telling us is that at least one of the groups of epidemiologists modelling this pandemic and advising Boris are fairly convinced this thing could potentially run on for the next 1-2 years.
Or more optimistically till more effective treatments are found, or a vaccine is developed, produced and administered to a large percentage of the population.

So IMHO, without wishing to depress people, we need to be realistic in our expectations: we could well be without live attended sport of any description for far longer than the remainder of this season. This is the new Dystopian reality we may well find ourselves in.
More importantly it's time for a huge reality check and do what we can for all those 1.5M on the NHS isolation list, and all those 60+ who may made need help. We need to take this thing very seriously and focus on complying with all the all advice this programm suggests, NOT for the next few weeks, but for the foreseeable future.....

My personal take......

If in a position to do so PLEASE VOLUNTEER to help those geographically close to you to ISOLATE, and to do it properly. Minimize direct social interraction, minimize travelling.
You will save lives. #BE KIND :pray:
iBozz liked this
By eBike
#11608
Sadly, an incident at the local supermarket today puts this into sharp relief.

Wearing a face mask and surgical gloves to minimise contact with anything I can't control I was harangued by a complete moron about "sending out the wrong impression and frightening people".

Yet when I confronted him he backed away saying "Stay away from me !". Go figure, they walk amongst us :brickwall:

We're screwed aren't we.
By SimonG
#11621
To counter I'm sure there are qualified "experts" out there who would tell us this will all be over much sooner than is being suggested.

The truth is (to me anyway) that no one knows so I am choosing not to get too excited or too depressed by people's guesses.
iBozz, poyntonshark, Flumpty liked this
By H's D
#11626
SimonG, LSOTM is the foremost authority in the UK on epidemiolgy of novel and exotic diseases. They, Imperial College London's Covid19 team, and the WHO headquartered in Geneva are the 'de facto' authorities on this. That is why HMG are taking their lead.

It is NOT about getting depressed or excited, it's about being prepared for and mitigating against the worst.
To refer to "experts" in Gove-like denigration when their mathematical modelling is fundamental to our only hope of reducing the impact of all this, is untimely and disengenuous. So far their modelling has been spot-on. The world's economy is now on tick-over as a result. Believe it..........and what NHS, Chinese and Italian medical staff are saying.


It IS about adherence to all their guidance and planning for the long term (just in case) and assisting others in less fortunate circumstances where one can safely do so. It keeps us human. Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
Saty safe.
Last edited by H's D on Mon Mar 23, 2020 2:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
By H's D
#11629
Fair enough. If it helps you.

There is a glimmer of light though...
IF we get enough PCR tests for current disease testing in the general population it will be a small step forward towards hoping for China's line of progression.
An antibody test also being developed and extensive sampling will then tell us if these models are likely to prove accurate about flare-ups, and ultimately, the likely duration of all of this.
A vaccine might eventually end it, and it will be enthralling to see how 'Open' research (Europe/Asia |Oceania) fares getting a vaccine out there compared to the US's commercially funded, Trump-lead, patent-strewn, profit-driven, methodology.
I am hoping they can reduce the 18months down to 6-12, but it will take a monumental effort.
User avatar
By iBozz
#11630
H's D wrote:
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:02 pm
A vaccine might eventually end it, and it will be enthralling to see how 'Open' research (Europe/Asia |Oceania) fares getting a vaccine out there compared to the US's commercially funded, Trump-lead, patent-strewn, profit-driven, methodology.
I am hoping they can reduce the 18months down to 6-12, but it will take a monumental effort.

Folding@Home is both American (Stanford University in California) - and open source. I can't understand why more people aren't donating their spare processing power to this most excellent cause.

Swannys Irregulars

From The Metro, 5th March 2020: How to join the fight against coronavirus using your computer
‘By downloading Folding@Home, you can donate your unused computational resources to the Folding@home Consortium, where researchers working to advance our understanding of the structures of potential drug targets for 2019-nCoV that could aid in the design of new therapies,’ wrote scientist Greg Bowman.

‘The data you help us generate will be quickly and openly disseminated as part of an open science collaboration of multiple laboratories around the world, giving researchers new tools that may unlock new opportunities for developing lifesaving drugs.

‘With many computers working towards the same goal, we aim to help develop a therapeutic remedy as quickly as possible.’
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