[Lord Elpus]

https://www.salesharks.com/2020/10/07/c ... ound-22-2/

[Olyy]

Shit.

Right decision, though. Hopefully all the players and staff come out of this fit and healthy and no lasting health issues.

Usually we drop a bunch of points at the end of the season to miss out on top 6 - a global pandemic causing us to miss top 4 is....a step up?


Hopefully Exeter go on and lift the cup - they deserve it after the season they've had, but the conduct of the Wasps/Bristol/Bath fans the past few days has truly been disgusting.

[DavenportSharky]

Silver lining. The entire club is now hopefully immune!

[chris1850]

Whilst this deprives us of challenging for the title, I have to say that I am pleased that it has been called off notwithstanding the extra positives reported. RFU protocols have allowed this unhappy situation to arise and must be reviewed urgently.

The health and safety of all players etc is paramount and given the scale of the outbreak at the Club there had to be serious doubt about the fixture being played. I am just grateful that Sundays game didnt go ahead - imagine the consequences now had it done so

I hope all players, staff and their families keep well and recover fully from the virus

[LJK]

Clearly the right decision now made. We ended the season on a high with the Cup victory and a good win. No more injuries to worry about in the short break before next season start. I am not too upset in the circs.

[ale shark]

Silver lining. The entire club is now hopefully immune!

Indeed. This will pay off handsomely next season as we pick up multiple 20-0 5 pointers!

[Lord Elpus]

......but the conduct of the Wasps/Bristol/Bath fans the past few days has truly been disgusting.

Some fans but not all.

[Beardedshark]

Yep. Hopefully the club has herd immunity

[ageinghoody]

Shit.

Right decision, though. Hopefully all the players and staff come out of this fit and healthy and no lasting health issues.

Usually we drop a bunch of points at the end of the season to miss out on top 6 - a global pandemic causing us to miss top 4 is....a step up?


Hopefully Exeter go on and lift the cup - they deserve it after the season they've had, but the conduct of the Wasps/Bristol/Bath fans the past few days has truly been disgusting.

Bit of an unfair generalisation there Olyy!

The one other forum I participate in is non-rugby related (it's about campervans), but has among its contributors two Wasps fans, one Bath and one Saints, plus me, so we few do exchange messages about rugby. They've all been perfectly civil and sympathetic throughout this episode. It was the Wasp who, when the "partying" smear first appeared, reminded me of the Social Media slogan, "Photos or it didn't happen!"

The Bath fan did say that, if our match went ahead he'd be cheering Wuss, but not out of antipathy to Sale. I thought that was forgiveable in the circs!

[Olyy]

Facebook, twitter and the rugbynetwork forums is what I'm basing my opinion on, and I stand by it. Obviously it's not 100% of the fanbase acting like this, and the internet is just a vocal minority - but from what I've seen of that vocal minority the majority are happy to see this happen to us/work themselves into a frenzy over the whole thing.

Throw in current and ex-players sticking their oar in as well (an ex-Bath player called for us to be kicked out of the premiership over our handling of it), and I'm definitely a Chiefs fan for the next few weeks.

[TeflonTed]

Facebook, twitter and the rugbynetwork forums is what I'm basing my opinion on, and I stand by it. Obviously it's not 100% of the fanbase acting like this, and the internet is just a vocal minority - but from what I've seen of that vocal minority they're all happy to see this happen to us/work themselves into a frenzy over the whole thing.

The vitriol and unpleasantness in the places you mention is why we’re here! Including those of us who dumped the SN site a year ago.

[DavenportSharky]

And it begs the original question, if we had simply protected the elderly, immunocompromised and vulnerable during April and let the virus rip through our children, students, young adults with very little mortality and very low level of long term sequelae, we would now have good herd immunity and few cases. Almost everyone would now have a good quality of life. Our economy would have been largely preserved. Our modern obsession with nobody dying at all costs has lead to the most miserable 6 months in decades. Quality of life is as important as quantity- most cancer patients will tell you that. Ventilating 90 year olds on ITU for weeks until they die surrounded by masks, tubes, machines and strangers but without the company of their family is poor medicine. Litigation, DNRs, Shipman etc have destroyed the art of medicine leaving only the science and we are the poorer for it.

[H's D]

Thankfully Covid is highly unlikely to cause any particular significant health issues in professional rugby player of their age so I hope no-one objects to black humour....
With that caveat......

"Serving that Bat soup to the squad after the Cup win turned out to be a bit of a faux pas......."

More seriously, imho this may well serve to demonstrate that the consquences of a delay in getting correct results are huge in preventing spread, simply because, manifestly, one or two games of rugby and a couple of contact traiing sessions are ideal conditions for viral spread. They are both almost certainly "superspreader types of activity"! The failure of the authorities to take action after the initial delay manifest in the consequential spread...
Clearly a positive should result in the whole process of testing being repeated before they play again.
Why don't the protocols require clubs to test again: 4 days had gone by, there was 3 days gap before the next match, ample time for other players to become positive and get results back before the Saints match?
Clearly the protocols need amending.

[Lord Elpus]

The whole process needs tightening and speeding up.

Re herd immunity - afaik this was Sir Patrick Vallance's first aim until the modellers warned him off with the potential death toll & strain on the NHS so suppression was employed instead. However it is not certain for how long immunity lasts. Sequelae on a rugby site - wow.

Also "Long Covid" is now causing some concern.

Was the bat soup served at the party at Man. Met. ?

[H's D]

And it begs the original question, if we had simply protected the elderly, immunocompromised and vulnerable during April and let the virus rip through our children, students, young adults with very little mortality and very low level of long term sequelae, we would now have good herd immunity and few cases. Almost everyone would now have a good quality of life. Our economy would have been largely preserved. Our modern obsession with nobody dying at all costs has lead to the most miserable 6 months in decades. Quality of life is as important as quantity- most cancer patients will tell you that. Ventilating 90 year olds on ITU for weeks until they die surrounded by masks, tubes, machines and strangers but without the company of their family is poor medicine. Litigation, DNRs, Shipman etc have destroyed the art of medicine leaving only the science and we are the poorer for it.

Whilst that is clearly a way forward, we should remember that the characturistics of this disease were unclear back in April. It also ignores the absense of adequate appropriate PPE equipment and settled staff to protect all of those at risk groups: NHS staff, care homes and the highly vulnerable. The total may well be up to 10 or 20% of the population!
Davenport is also no doubt aware of the significant number of middle-aged folk who have ended up with some long term consequences as a result of covid. Mostly fairly minor, but nevertheless concerning if one were let that sort of policy run in a first wave....
No one knows how long they will persist for and some are only now becoming apparent.

Broadly though I agree for the future: it will quickly come to be regarded like a new flu, with flare-ups every autumn, albeit with an overall mortality rate about 10 times higher than most strains. Pretty much like the 1918 strain.

"The Bat soup meal was entirely within protocols at Carrington. "
I honestly think this disease can spread like this without any irresponsibility. Superspreader events/activities are uncommon but well-documented. I think one can add "a game of rugby union" to the list.

[DavenportSharky]

Absolutely H’sD. Written with the benefit of hindsight of course. I did however think in the Spring that our government was obsessed with stopping any criticism of the precious vote winning NHS rather than caring about the lives of those with the virus or those caring for them. Their handling of care homes shows that. People worship the NHS, they don’t worship care homes. Modern medicine is fantastic, the people who work in healthcare are (mostly) fantastic, the NHS is not.
The 1918 Spanish ‘flu pandemic hardly registered on people who were used to high infant mortality, poor life expectancy and the carnage of trench warfare. Most of them believed in God and an afterlife and death held little fear. Death is no longer an acceptable part of life and we are even adopting the American term “passed” in the media instead of “died”.
The late effects of this virus are fascinating and it’s impact may not be apparent for some time to come. Whether they occur in young adults seems less clear. What would be the impact in top class sport of even minor pulmonary fibrosis or myocarditis?

[DaveAitch]

Had health and safety really been paramount this game would have been called off immediately 19 positives were returned.

[Van Cannonball]

Had health and safety really been paramount we wouldn’t be playing rugby at all...

[ageinghoody]

And it begs the original question, if we had simply protected the elderly, immunocompromised and vulnerable during April and let the virus rip through our children, students, young adults with very little mortality and very low level of long term sequelae, we would now have good herd immunity and few cases. Almost everyone would now have a good quality of life. Our economy would have been largely preserved. Our modern obsession with nobody dying at all costs has lead to the most miserable 6 months in decades. Quality of life is as important as quantity- most cancer patients will tell you that. Ventilating 90 year olds on ITU for weeks until they die surrounded by masks, tubes, machines and strangers but without the company of their family is poor medicine. Litigation, DNRs, Shipman etc have destroyed the art of medicine leaving only the science and we are the poorer for it.

Altgough I'm not entirely unsympathetic to that view, the earlier iterations of how it would work seemed to equate "protect" with "incarcerate"!

When lockdown began I was 69, with no medical conditions, and considered as safe as anyone else to do such shopping as was permissible, attend such medical treatment as was available, and go for my daily exercise; in my case three runs of 5-8 kms each per week and walks of similar length on the other four days. However, there was an implication in the guidelines, and certainly a vocal body of belief, that on the stroke of midnight ushering in my 70th birthday I instantly became vulnerable and five times as likely to die as a result of becoming infected, and so should consider myself under indefinite house arrest. Yeah right!

Now I'm hopeful that the attitude to "vulnerable and needing protection" has become a bit more nuanced since then. I was cheering and shouting "That's me!" at the radio a few weeks ago, when a Junior Minister or somesuch from the Dept of Health was talking about this question and stated, "It's very likely a sedentary, overweight forty-five year old will be at greater risk than a seventy year-old regular parkrunner!!" (I wouldn't claim that's verbatim!)

If that's how vulnerability is going to be defined, them I'm persuadable subject to other safeguards over compulsion.
But if a government tries to lock me down purely on the basis of my Birth Certificate, then my first breach of quarantine will likely be to the local craft shop to buy materials for my placard ready for the march on Parliament Square!

[DaveAitch]

I was already 'there' when all this broke. Generally fit and healthy, without going out for 5 mile runs, I was, and still am, at less risk than some considerably younger who are carrying several health problems. That said, I presume I am at greater risk than I would be if I were a 'few' years younger.

[DavenportSharky]

I’m also not too far behind on the age front!! The risk factors are of course numerous and carry different weighting. The problem is making any of this Covid information understandable to someone of average intelligence ( remembering of course that half the population have below average intelligence!!).
This link is to the British Medical Association Covid 19 risk assessment

https://www.bma.org.uk/media/2768/bma-c ... ly2020.pdf

Remember of course that it was a tool produced by the doctors trade union and presumably applies to risk of death (passing!!!!)not of contracting the virus.

[DaveAitch]

Thanks for that link. I think I come out as a 5: those of a certain age will remember 'jukebox jury' and I'll give it five (with a Birmingham accent). I, perhaps, would have added a fourth, extra high, band titled along the lines of.....

[ale shark]

In all serious is it not worth using this period before next season starts to try and insure full herd immunity within the squad. It could give us a serious advantage next season.

[Olyy]

Aren't there increasing numbers of people getting it for a second time, suggesting herd immunity isn't possible?

[WillC]

In all serious is it not worth using this period before next season starts to try and insure full herd immunity within the squad. It could give us a serious advantage next season.

I don't think herd immunity is proven with this disease. There were reports a few weeks ago that Sweden's level of antibodies in the general population isn't much higher than other countries despite virtually no lockdown.

[DaveAitch]

Olyy, I don't know. Maybe it will prove to be like glandular fever, with the symptoms returning from time to time, but seemingly in a milder form. I don't think a person is infectious in those secondary spells.

[JohnJ of HM]

Thanks for that link. I think I come out as a 5: those of a certain age will remember 'jukebox jury' and I'll give it five (with a Birmingham accent). I, perhaps, would have added a fourth, extra high, band titled along the lines of.....

Wasn't that Ready Steady Go? Fairly confident it wasn't JBJ

[JohnJ of HM]

Thanks for that link. I think I come out as a 5: those of a certain age will remember 'jukebox jury' and I'll give it five (with a Birmingham accent). I, perhaps, would have added a fourth, extra high, band titled along the lines of.....

Just checked - Thank Your Lucky Stars

[DaveAitch]

Yes, I'm sure you are correct there, JJ of HM, TYLS not JBJ.

The three programmes tend to merge into one sixty years on.

[DavenportSharky]

This appeared yesterday in that well known medical journal....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ts-puzzled

About 2 dozen reinfections documented in 30 million world wide cases. Perhaps one day our great grandchildren will have Covid-19 parties to induce immunity.
Chicken pox, a disease often deliberately spread at children’s parties, causes a mild illness in infants but has a 5% mortality in adults.

[DavenportSharky]

Sadly, I too remember all 3 of those programmes. David Jacobs in his dinner jacket, Pete Murray ..... no mention of Covid, lockdown, Coronavirus, pandemic, furlough, .......
Those were the days, my friend,
I thought they’d never end......

[Lord Elpus]

Yes, I'm sure you are correct there, JJ of HM, TYLS not JBJ.

The three programmes tend to merge into one sixty years on.

JBJ was very much a hit and miss programme.

[west brom warrior]

In all serious is it not worth using this period before next season starts to try and insure full herd immunity within the squad. It could give us a serious advantage next season.

An interesting concept for clubs to consider but as the long term health risks associated with COVID are not known the club would be playing with fire legally if it were to encourage this behaviour. Not only is herd immunity not yet known (it appears that some people around the World have caught COVID twice now) but also the long term health issues are not yet known with it being a relatively new disease. My friend who is an ICU nurse in a London hospital contacted COVID in April, they tested positive for a total of 7 weeks before returning 2 negative tests and being allowed to return to work. As she is based at a hospital they have been using a number of the staff to track long term impacts, she has a a number of scars on her lungs which are new since COVID and they are not going away, as such they expect some long term breathing issues to develop as a result of the illness that could well impact on her later in life.

Anyway hopefully see you Sale fans some point next season.

[ledzepsfr]

Silver lining. The entire club is now hopefully immune!

Why would the entire club be immune?

[JohnJ of HM]

Sadly, I too remember all 3 of those programmes. David Jacobs in his dinner jacket, Pete Murray ..... no mention of Covid, lockdown, Coronavirus, pandemic, furlough, .......
Those were the days, my friend,
I thought they’d never end......

Pete Murray, still alive aged 95.

[Van Cannonball]

Silver lining. The entire club is now hopefully immune!

Why would the entire club be immune?

Because it’s somewhat assumed that once you’ve had it you’ll have immunity. That’s unknown at the moment of course. There are some reports of reinfections but the numbers I read recently amounted to about 0.01% of total cases.

[poyntonshark]

Wasn't it something like 14 confirmed re-infections globally? It looks ridiculous when you type it yourself, but I'm sure I read it recently. As things stand I would have thought pro athletes would be warier of the effects of 'Long Covid' rather than the benefits of herd immunity. Permanent respiratory problems sound career-ending.

[DaveAitch]

Sadly, I too remember all 3 of those programmes. David Jacobs in his dinner jacket, Pete Murray ..... no mention of Covid, lockdown, Coronavirus, pandemic, furlough, .......
Those were the days, my friend,
I thought they’d never end......

Pete Murray, still alive aged 95.

I didn't realise that. He must be the last of that generation of DJs. (Wait for someone to add, such-and-such is still going as well. Wait also for someone to complain about the threat being hijacked.)

[ageinghoody]

I suppose after my earlier post on the subject, in fairness I must mention a conversation I had last night on the "herd immunity" topic, with a differing view. It left me completely shaken!

To cut a long story short, a relative and spouse, both senior nurses, are incredulous and appalled at the merest suggestion of "letting the virus rip".

They are convinced it wouldn't work and that the, so far avoided, overwhelming of health resources would rapidly come to pass. Especially as they (and apparently the vast majority of their colleagues) see such a policy as, in their words, "throwing us (health workers) to the wolves", and with two young children of their own to consider, wouldn't be turning up for work!

[Mike Flitcroft]

Herd immunity only works if there is a vaccine freely available as understand it and yes, I too have a close relationship with health professionals who say the same. H's D would I believe, confirm the same.

[Lord Elpus]

Herd immunity only works if there is a vaccine freely available as understand it and yes, I too have a close relationship with health professionals who say the same. H's D would I believe, confirm the same.

As I understand it mass vaccination is a way of achieving herd immunity as has occurred with smallpox, polio, measles, rubella, mumps etc. and that's why the 'flu vaccine is offered to those deemed at risk.

[ageinghoody]

Herd immunity only works if there is a vaccine freely available as understand it and yes, I too have a close relationship with health professionals who say the same. H's D would I believe, confirm the same.

As I understand it mass vaccination is a way of achieving herd immunity as has occurred with smallpox, polio, measles, rubella, mumps etc. and that's why the 'flu vaccine is offered to those deemed at risk.

Yes, with the caveat that 'flu mutates rapidly, as a consequence needs renewing yearly, and each year's vaccine is only a "best guess" at what is likely to be most effective for this year's strain.

Just got back from having mine, where they decided to cheer me up by telling me that I'm now old enough to have a pneumococcal jab too!

[H's D]

Herd immunity only works if there is a vaccine freely available as understand it and yes, I too have a close relationship with health professionals who say the same. H's D would I believe, confirm the same.

Absolutely, the individual risk of catching this disease has always been low, IF you able to modify your behaviour and are careful. Even now only of the order of half a percent percent of folk in the North West are infectious and half of them should be isolating.
The problem is it is so damaging and often lethal to a significant small percentage of the population that do catch it..
It has always been about protecting the NHS, it's workers and people who can't make those changes in lifestyle to protect themselves e.g. those in Care Homes serviced by agency staff with daily visitors.

Vaccines won't change much, it would take far too long to vaccinate half the population so "herd immunity" as such is a non starter.
Only those viruses/vaccines which generate immunity for life are really candidates for "herd immunity"
That isn't seen with this perfect storm of a virus! Flu is the closest vaccine model.
We have had the flu vaccine for a decade but there are still small waves of varying severity every winter that still result in deaths. EVERY year we run into vaccine shortages, so some retired/high risk folk are obliged to wait far too long. Far too few people can be bothered, or are those that can are told you don't qualify for one.

Health workers shouldn't worry about kids at all, they are the only age group who seem, virtually, completely untouched. Lightening strikes of kids in playgrounds are probably far more common!
Homo sapiens is, ironically, very poor at assessing new individual risks. Homo anxietas abounds. We really need a rapid evolution into Homo pragmaticus.

[ageinghoody]

I wasn't clear before, H's D but my relatives concern was more about the risk to themselves, which could impinge on their future ability to care for their kids.

I realise there was a report saying that infected health workers were no more likely to die with COVID than the general population. I fear that made people a bit blasé, as it only referred to the mortality risk once infected, with no mention of the risk of getting infected in the first place. In other words, even at the same mortality rate if your risk of infection is rwice that of Joe Public, then you're twice as likely to die.

[iBozz]

Just got back from having mine, where they decided to cheer me up by telling me that I'm now old enough to have a pneumococcal jab too!

I had that vaccine a few years ago and have had pneumonia twice since. I asked my GP why I wasn't immune and she said the pneumococcal vaccine was like the flu vaccine - a "best guess" as to the type of bacteria or virus which you may encounter and which may consequently give you pneumonia.

[H's D]

...sadly, but logically, a pneumococcus vaccine only gives a substantial degree of immunity to pneumococcus infection, not all the other viruses, secondary bacteria and other factors associated with pneumonia! The use of lay terms causes no end of misunderstandings and misconceptions.....It's not a 'best guess' at all. It's the one we have a vaccine for, that is fairly common, where the benfits clearly outweigh the risks.
The flu vaccine is the same , they survey and type field viruses each year and create a mix of several strains of virus to reflect that incidence regionally. They make several different mixes optimised for different regions based on epidemiology . Globe trotting and new strains appearing occasionally upsets that rational approach but it isn't guesswork, life is just unpredictable. The delay in producing sufficient doses makes it all the more difficult to cover all the bases...

[H's D]

I wasn't clear before, H's D but my relatives concern was more about the risk to themselves, which could impinge on their future ability to care for their kids.

I realise there was a report saying that infected health workers were no more likely to die with COVID than the general population. I fear that made people a bit blasé, as it only referred to the mortality risk once infected, with no mention of the risk of getting infected in the first place. In other words, even at the same mortality rate if your risk of infection is rwice that of Joe Public, then you're twice as likely to die.

That would make more sense.
I think health workers were actually more at risk of death and serious disease than the general population due to the higher incidence of ethnicity risk factors within that subpopulation. The NHS lost a disprortionate number because of that. The PPE should have protected them but it was often inadequate or in very short supply. Long established best practice was often the victim. They had frequent exposure to large amounts of virus: every one was an absolute hero. Many that I kmow came to breaking point.
Yet still some people think we should get back to normal now, because 'it doesn't harm many amongst my peers'... 'it's the "pre-existing condition, or your age" that kills you!'

[DaveAitch]

I am still am a health professional, although only doing three sessions a week. I have always accepted the fact that being at an increased risk is part of the job. If I were not prepared to accept that I would have done something else.

[poyntonshark]

Only mildly related, but might cheer you up. As the Southern Hemisphere comes out of winter we have apparently had one of the lowest numbers of Flu infections on record, being put down to measures imposed by Covid. Increased personal hygiene and social distancing chief among them.

[iBozz]

The use of lay terms causes no end of misunderstandings and misconceptions.....It's not a 'best guess' at all. It's the one we have a vaccine for, that is fairly common, where the benfits clearly outweigh the risks.

Lay terms are good enough for me, I have no interest in the technical side of medicine. A "best guess" as to the most likely strain that I, or the general population, will contract is fine by me and if I'm unlucky enough to contract pneumonia then fine, although twice in two years is a bit much, my strain is presumably outside the normal parameters. Or I have a hitherto unknown talent in developing rare diseases.

Lay terms are better for me than being baffled by incomprehensible science.